|
By Gretchen Keiser
Most people in the United States remember the oil crisis of
1973-74 when prices soared, austerity measures were imposed and lines at the
gas station were common.
A decade later in the U.S., that experience is simply an unhappy
memory. Today there are no lines at the gas stations and the prices have fallen
back dramatically, although they are still higher than the 50-cent-a-gallon
luxury of 1973.
From this perspective, it is difficult to realize that what was an
oil crisis in the U.S. was a catastrophe in developing countries around the
world. Their less stable economies could not absorb the change in oil prices as
the American economy, in time, did. The oil crisis and other international
economic events are borne most heavily by the poor of the world, since their
countries are particularly vulnerable to major economic changes. And within
their countries, the poor are the ones least able to absorb the cuts in public
services that result and the rises in the cost of food, clothing and energy.
The U.S. bishops, in the fourth major part of their first draft
letter on the economy, examine the relationship between the U.S. and the world
economy. In part, they call for a new approach in U.S. foreign policy. We
want to stand with the poor everywhere, the draft says, and we urge
that U.S.-developing world relations should be determined in the first place by
a concern for the basic human needs of the poor.
While the bishops did not apply these principles to specific
countries, it may be helpful to look at a particular place where economic
struggles are taking place.
The island of Jamaica in the Caribbean, south of Cuba, was one of
the countries devastated by the oil crisis of the 70s. Newly independent in
1962, after being under British rule, the island was struggling to take its
place in the world economy. As is typical in a developing country, Jamaica had
to import many necessary goods from other countries and constantly struggled
with an unfavorable trade balance in which many more goods were imported than
were exported. This meant that the Jamaicans were spending much more on
imported goods than they were earning from exports.
When oil prices shot up, the country had to pay even more for the
necessary imports than it already was. Its own exports to industrial counties
were cut back because of the recession taking place in those more highly
developed nations, which cut back on spending. By 1978, according to a report
by the World Bank, economic conditions had reached alarming
proportions. The Jamaican government had to introduce a
stabilization program under the guidance of the International
Monetary Fund and the World Bank to provide financial support for its shaky
economy. The program involved very austere fiscal and financial
measures, the World Bank reported in a 1978 book, The Commonwealth
Caribbean; The Integration Experience.
The changes that took place during those years, aggravated by
political crises in the nation during the 1970s, are still being felt,
painfully, by Jamaicans. In 1960, according to World Bank statistics, the cost
of energy imports amounted to 11 percent of the islands merchandise
exports. In 1981, the cost of energy imports was 51 percent of its merchandise
exports. In 1970 the island had a balance of payments deficit of $153 million
dollars. In 1982, the deficit was $403 million.
As of 1982, the external public debt of the island was $1,511
million, which equals 49.9 percent of the countrys gross national
product.
One of the aspects of international finance which comes into play
for developing countries is assistance from the International Monetary Fund and
the World Bank. When the IMF comes to the aid of a country in crisis
financially, it establishes conditions for the aid which attempt to pressure
the country to move toward better financial health. Typically those measures
press for fewer imports and greater exports. They might also call upon the
government to reduce the cost of government services. While the specific means
are not spelled out, whatever actions are taken affect the poor most heavily.
To provide its funds or its stamp of approval, the IMF
requires the borrowing country to increase the proportion of exports to imports
and decrease the proportion of spending relative to output, i.e., to save
more, the bishops letter notes. These
adjustments
usually fall most heavily on the poor through reduction of
public services, consumer subsidies, and after wages; they thus exacerbate the
already straitened circumstances of the poor.
In a telephone interview, a Kingston, Jamaica bank manager, Clovis
Metcalfe, said that the actual conditions set by the IMF for financial recovery
in Jamaica have not been made public by the government. However, he noted that
in 1984 several measures have been taken by the government which appear to be
the governments response to IMF conditions.
A government effort to cut the civil service work force by 10,000
began about three months ago, he said, putting many people out of work.
Unemployment on the island is already approximately 20 percent.
The currency has been drastically devalued in 1984, causing prices
to rise dramatically for the average Jamaican. In February 1983, the rate of
exchange for one American dollar was $1.78 Jamaican. In February 1984, the rate
was approximately $3 Jamaican for one American dollar. By December, the rate
was fluctuating between $4 and $4.60 Jamaican, Mr. Metcalfe said, after
reaching a high of $4.90.
Bank interest rates have risen to 23 to 27 percent, he said,
threatening many businesses with bankruptcy.
Mr. Metcalfe said that the average wage for a Jamaican would be
$7,000 Jamaican dollars per year.
Asked how people were managing to survive with such massive
inflation, he said, Theyre not, theyre not. Obviously you
have a privileged few
But a part of the society is obviously
starving.
The situation in Jamaica, according to World Bank and IMF
statistics, is far from the worst in the world. The island does not fall into
the category of the least developed countries in the world, where the per
capita annual income is the equivalent of $400 or less. It is not among the
famine and drought devastated regions of Africa.
But it appears to be one of the countries caught in a worsening
bind. In need of development funds to upgrade exports and provide new jobs,
money is having to be spent instead on basic, essential goods and energy, and
on managing old debts.
From the perspective of Mr. Metcalfe, international efforts to
provide financial help have the wrong strings attached. The utmost
interest (internationally) should be the development of the country, he
said. If that is the intent of international efforts, it is not having enough
of that effect in Jamaica, he said.
Martin McLaughlin, a consultant to the U.S. Catholic Conference on
social development, agreed that the general impact of IMF conditionally
is disadvantageous to the poor.
However, he pointed out that the intent of the IMF, which was
founded to reestablish world trade after World War II, was to take care of
short-term financial problems for countries, not to serve as a development
bank.
It would be up to member nations, including its most influential
member, the United States, to propose changes in the way the IMF deals with the
developing word, he pointed out.
According to the bishops letter three themes emerge from
recent papal teaching: the need for reform of the international system,
the need to refashion national policies, and the acceptance of a
preferential option for the poor as an overall policy
imperative. |